LSU in the Sugar Bowl

Following the BCS madness I'm expecting LSU to play in the Sugar Bowl. If as seems likely Auburn wins out they will be in the BCS Championship. It seems likely that LSU will be the highest ranked SEC teams and the Sugar Bowl will pick them. It seems likely that they will also pick whoever is left, from TCU or Boise State. Mark Schlabach of ESPN seems to agree, here are his picks.

BCS National Championship Game (BCS No. 1 vs. BCS No. 2)	Oregon vs. Auburn
Allstate Sugar (SEC #1 vs. BCS)	LSU vs. TCU
Discover Orange (ACC # 1 vs. BCS)	Virginia Tech vs. Wisconsin
Fiesta (Big 12 # 1 vs. BCS)	Nebraska vs. Pittsburgh
Rose Bowl presented by VIZIO (Pac 10 #1 vs. Big 10 #1 )	Michigan State vs. Boise State

Fox/cfn has LSU in the Sugar against Boise State. and CBS, who expect Alabama to beat Auburn, have LSU in the Orange. I found a link that keeps several predictions current ( usually a day or so after they are released). I'm not sure the order of the replacement picks but I know the bowls that lose a team go first. But if two bowls lose a team who is first (I'd guess they go in order of ranking)?

CBS says this

The champions of selected conferences are contractually committed to certain bowls, unless they are No. 1 or No. 2. (ACC: Orange; Big Ten: Rose; Big 12: Fiesta; Pac-10: Rose; SEC: Sugar). If a Bowl loses a host team to the title game, then the bowl gets first choice at a replacement team. The rest of the selection order for 2011 is as follows: Sugar, Orange, Fiesta.

Assuming that the BCS rankings stay the same (although if Auburn beats Alabama convincingly or Oregon stumbles they could move up) the order of selection would be;

1. Rose Bowl to replace Oregon
2. Sugar to replace Auburn
3. Sugar
4. Orange
5. Fiesta

That would mean that the the Rose Bowl would probably select either Boise State or TCU. I'd guess they will select Boise State, since they are a western team, but maybe that's wishful thinking. Sugar could select LSU and TCU. I think TCU is a better team and a lot of people would follow them to New Orleans. I don't think the Smurfs travel that well.

Of course all of this assumes everybody does what people expect them to do and Les Miles doesn't get fired first.

The actual Rules for the BCS selection are fairly complicated, and I'm not sure anyone has actually considered all of them. Here is the meat of the process, There is a lot more dealying with what happens if enough teams don't qualify under these rules.

BCS selection procedures

Automatic Qualification, At-Large Eligibility and Team Selection

Automatic qualification

1. The top two teams in the final BCS Standings shall play in the National Championship Game.

2. The champions of the Atlantic Coast, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-10, and Southeastern conferences will have automatic berths in one of the participating bowls through the 2013 regular season.

3. The champion of Conference USA, the Mid-American Conference, the Mountain West Conference, the Sun Belt Conference, or the Western Athletic Conference will earn an automatic berth in a BCS bowl game if either:

A. Such team is ranked in the top 12 of the final BCS Standings, or,
B. Such team is ranked in the top 16 of the final BCS Standings and its ranking in the final BCS Standings is higher than that of a champion of a conference that has an annual automatic berth in one of the BCS bowls.

No more than one such team from Conference USA, the Mid-American Conference, the Mountain West Conference, the Sun Belt Conference, and the Western Athletic Conference shall earn an automatic berth in any year. (Note: a second team may be eligible for at-large eligibility as noted below.) If two or more teams from those conferences satisfy the provisions for an automatic berth, then the team with the highest finish in the final BCS Standings will receive the automatic berth, and the remaining team or teams will be considered for at-large selection if it meets the criteria.

4. Notre Dame will have an automatic berth if it is in the top eight of the final BCS Standings.

5. If any of the 10 slots remain open after application of provisions 1 through 4, and an at-large team from a conference with an annual automatic berth for its champion is ranked No. 3 in the final BCS Standings, that team will become an automatic qualifier, provided that no at-large team from the same conference qualifies for the national championship game.

6. If any of the 10 slots remain open after application of provisions 1 through 5, and if no team qualifies under paragraph No. 5 and an at-large team from a conference with an annual automatic berth for its champion is ranked No. 4 in the final BCS Standings, that team will become an automatic qualifier provided that no at-large team from the same conference qualifies for the national championship game.

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At-large eligibility

If there are fewer than 10 automatic qualifiers, then the bowls will select at-large participants to fill the remaining berths. An at-large team is any Football Bowl Subdivision team that is bowl-eligible and meets the following requirements:

A. Has won at least nine regular-season games, and
B. Is among the top 14 teams in the final BCS Standings.

No more than two teams from a conference may be selected, regardless of whether they are automatic qualifiers or at-large selections, unless two non-champions from the same conference are ranked No. 1 and No. 2 in the final BCS Standings.