Southwest, losing customers one at a time.

I was under the impression that Southwest and Airtran, both owned by Southwest were going to match status for their frequent flyer programs. I did receive a Southwest A-List membership which apparently expires at the end of this year.

Yesterday I was informed that was not the case and that passengers in order to continue that status passengers would need to qualify for the two programs separately.

I fly Airtran when it goes where I need to go and I fly Southwest when it goes where I need to go.

Southwest's attitude toward some of it's best future passengers is puzzling and discouraging.  As a loyal Airtran customers I am already saddened that Airtran's innovative and passenger friendly policies are going to be replaced by Southwest's much different and less convenient policies. Southwest is doing virtually nothing to ease this transition.

It would seem a minor concession to continue the practice of including Airtran A+ Rewards Elite members on Southwest's A list. The cost is small and the goodwill substantial.

Has Southwest Airlines Lost it's Way?

I wonder if Southwest Airlines has lost it's way. I am a frequent traveler on Airtran and since Airtran was purchased by Southwest I've been watching for the changes Suthwest is implementing.

I like Airtran, they have a range of programs designed to attract different groups of travelers. They have a business class and use upgrades to reward frequent fliers. They have a standby program for poor college students with more time than money called airtran U. They have a A2B a corporate program that caters to business travelers with relatively low entry requirements and offers a number of perks that enhance flexibility like free name changes and free same day standby (space available) and a free bag. Airtran has a simple Frequent Flyer (8 flights = 1 free flight). Their Elite designation adds a number of free perks including free upgrades (space available) and free bags.

Southwest on the other hand has recently revamped their Frequent flier program ( Rapid Rewards) to be more like a legacy airline mileage program geared to how much a passenger paid for their ticket. The new program offers miles that do no expire ( for now). It is also difficult to transfer "points" that do expire from the old program to the new one.

Southwest has also been aggressively raising fares to the extent that in many cases they are not the least expensive airline. She recently has a need to travel from New Orleans to Austin, both in Southwests "home country". Continental was far less expensive, given two months notice, even including the bag fees that Continental will charge. That was a stunning epiphany.

Formerly I was a Southwest evangelist, they were nice to us. Then they turned on us.

Once A long time ago I was on a one day trip to Dallas. I took Southwest and on the way back I had elected to take a later flight that went through Houston. When we were waiting to take off the airport was closed due to weather. The Captain ordered drinks all around. After a while we moved out but for some reason pulled off to the side. It turned out the Houston Airport was now closed by the same storm front. Shortly after that a truck pulled up beside our plane and couple of guys who could have been Chippendales marched down the aisle with case of beer on their shoulder to applause all around.

Southwest was also famous for handing out free drink coupons. A while ago they voided all of those drink coupons that they had given out. I had 12 or 16 that are now useless. Non of them had an expiration date. There are law suits pending.

Back to Southwest of the present from what I read in the Business Press Southwest wants to attract more Business Travelers. I am at a loss to determine what programs Southwest has in place to accomplish this. Big Corporations seem more than willing to pay big bucks to keep their employees happy while they also have the clout to get better deals from the Legacy Airlines. The business opportunity that Airtran identified and Southwest seems to be ignoring, is the small businesses who actually can direct the travel of their employees but cannot get a good deal from the legacy airlines.

Let me point out what, according to Southwest, we will no longer have:

• Business Class.
• As a result of legacy program changes
  
• As an Elite Member - I will likely get a place in the front of the line and a 25% increase in points.
  
• Although as I understand it the qualification to remain on the A List will double over A+ Elite .
  
• The ironically named A List Preferred apparently requires nearly double the qualifications of the A list and four times the qualification to renew Airtran's Elite status.
• Other than enhanced "brownie points" (100% vs 25%)" and free wifi, there seems no additional benefit over the "A List".
  
• Neither offer substantial benefits beyond a "dedicated phone number" and "priority boarding", which we already enjoy.
• We have also noted that the Southwest "Rapid Rewards" which was similar to Airtran's A+ Rewards has been downgraded making it less attractive than it was previously, although the new "points don't expire" feature favors occasional travelers over frequent travelers.
  
• No more A2B at our level. We have only used two of the A2B benefits to any effect.
  
• One of the most substantial business benefits to use is the ability to change the name on a reservation.
  
• Our other most used benefit is the ability to go standby on a space available basis on any flight on the same day at no cost.
• Southwest Corporate Travel program is only available to Fortune 2000 Businesses.
• The SWABIZ program offers no benefits to travelers and the benefits to a business are nominal.
  
• Although Baggage charges make a point for leisure travelers many (maybe most) Business Travelers do not check baggage, or even carry any. I know I seldom do except for long leisure trips.
• When traveling Airtran on business I seldom check a bag or even carry one. I usually do when on vacation.
• As an Airtran A2B passenger I get one bag free (an effective $15 discount (if I were to check a bag, which I almost never do)).
• Many Passengers carry on their bags, which they might check if there were no bag fees.
• I am old enough to remember when it was "cool" not to check bags and the "stewardess" would stow bags for you.
• Today the large overhead bins accommodate "standard" rolling bags and many people are afraid to check bags.
• As an Airtran A+ Elite I do not pay baggage fees on the first two bags, I effectively get a $35 discount on most tickets (If I were to check two bags, which I seldom do).
• In essence Southwest is giving away a "cosmetic benefit" which costs little and benefits Business Travelers little.

While I will probably continue to fly the new Airtran/Southwest I also expect fares to increase, except for occasional, less frequent sale fares. I will always fondly remember Airtran and the fact that their business model seemed to be working. If a new Airtran comes along I will likely jump ship.

I presently expect that our fare's will increase approximately 40% by 2013, as a result of Southwest's model replacing Airtran's. I also expect to lose the few useful benefits we enjoyed as A2B partners.

I hope I'm wrong.

I don't think I am, recently I found that Delta had lower fares than Airtran/Southwest for a trp from MSY 2 ATL.

I don't get it.

Everyone or at least a lot of people seem to think Tim Tebow, a professional football player for the Denver Broncos, is some kind of messiah.

I don't get it.

Before he was a professional football player he was a college football player and I didn't get it then.

I was in Jacksonville Florida near the epicenter of Tebowism two years ago during the height of his collegiate beatification. I had the temerity to express in a convention shuttle bus that "I didn't get it". I was subsequently verbal assault by the BUS DRIVER.


The expiration of his college carer was apparently enough to move his college coach to retire.

I still don't get it.

In his still nascent professional career he has played one game and most of that was pretty awful, but the press seems to be willing to anoint him as he next coming.


I'm perfectly willing to accord him his accomplishments on the football field, even grant him a measure of greatness. I simply don't get the near religious adoration accorded him as an athlete.

Perhaps it's his posture resembling a great work of art
Perhaps some of his disciples should reflect on his actual meaning.

I'm Getting Old

I recently had a birthday and She took me on a plantation excursion. We spent the night at Nottoway and at Houmas House. Each of those places has evolved into a tourist destination of sorts, with numerous attractions. Both host a lot of weddings and other events, both have fine dining restaurants. Nottoway has overnight accommodations for about 100 people including rooms in the house and cottages.

This is something we have been talking about for a long time. We even did it once, spending the night at Madewood a few years ago, before I started this blog.

This was a sort of surprise. I knew something was happening but I didn't know exactly what.


Friday afternoon we took off work early and headed up the river and over the Sunshine Bridge. We arrived a Notoway
and checked into our new cottage, it had been open only a year or two.

The room was very nicely furnished.


Since it was late in the afternoon we unpacked, walked around the grounds and eventually got ready for dinner at the Mansion Restaurant, located in the lower level of the house.


Our table was the one of the far right. The food was very good and the service pretty good. I recommend it. The only drawback is like a lot of restaurants it is noisy, although that may have had more to do with the party at the next table.

Saturday morning we had breakfast in the restaurant. Two eggs any style with choice of bacon or ham, grits and biscuit ($7.00). They didn't run out of grits.

Finally the tour of the property. It was interesting. The most interesting part was how the plantation survived the Civil War. It seems the owner took his slaves to Texas where he hired them out to make cash. When the war was over he had the cash to purchase a pardon and keep the plantation. The second most interesting part was the opinion of our guide, a retired school teacher, on the state of education in Louisiana.

Heading back across the Sunshine bridge to Houmas House.

Houmas House doesn't have any overnight accommodations except their Honeymoon Cottage.

It is an old cottage with two rooms, a bed room and a bridal room. It also has a large bathroom with a giant tub. There is no TV in the cottage nor as far as I could find anywhere on the plantation.

There is however a bar on the premises


It is fairly small and serves as the bar for the restaurant and the various events. I got the opportunity to teach two bar tenders how to make a daiquiri.

We had dinner at Latil's Landing Restaurant, located in the old trading post building behind the main house. The Food was excellent and the service very good. I recommend it also.

There are several small dining rooms, this is the one we ate in.

Sunday morning we had a bit of a problem, the water went out early in the morning and didn't come back on until after 10. We were wondering whether the rest of our day would be in jeopardy, you see we wanted to take a tour and have brunch before departing.

Nothing seemed to go awry. Tours were announced by the ringing of a bell and they went on more or less as scheduled. We took the 11:00 AM tour, led by a very dramatic young lady named Katie. Whenever I take these kinds of tours I'm never sure how much of the spiel is accurate but in South Louisiana we have never been anxious about letting a few facts get in the way of a good story.

Again Houmas House survived the Civil War as a viable working plantation. The story of how that happened is also interesting. Apparently the Owner freed his slaves several months before the war started and hired them back as employees. He also kept his money in Northern banks, was an Irishman and therefore a British Subject and had a letter for Abraham Lincoln.

The most interesting thing on the tour was a large map of Louisiana from the 1840's. It showed the extent of major plantations and listed the population of each parish. It listed population in three columns White, Free Colored and Slaves. I can't recall the exact numbers but I was surprised to see that Orleans parish was listed with somewhat over 100,000 residents. Somewhat over 50,000 were white and there were almost equal numbers of slaves and free colored residents (each in the 20,000's).

After the tour we had Sunday Brunch in the Pavillion Ballroom, one of the venues on site. It was pretty good as well.

After brunch we drove back to New Orleans in time to watch the saints game on TV, but that is another story.

Thank You TOM

I was anxiously awaiting the new improved Superdome this year. I was unable to attend either of the pre-season games so my first look at the new seating was for the home season opener against Chicago.


The first challenge is the new more extensive screening procedure. They are now patting people down much more thoroughly, unfortunately they have not increased the number of screeners, not the arrangements for screening. The only solution it seem they can come up with is for everyone to get there sooner and stand in line longer.


The new concourse and concession areas a substantial improvement, there is more space less congestion.


The new plaza level seating is a big disappointment. The seats don't seem as comfortable, the sight lines don't seem as good. In order to add more seat is seems the "rake" of the seating has been decreased. the opposite of what I expected.

Our seats are on the sideline at the edge of the sideline, across the aisle is the end zone seating at a much lower price. Unfortunately although we have the same seat numbers our seats are now as last year we are about 15 yards farther down the sideline.

However the biggest annoyance is the increased cost of beer. It's now $8.50 a piece. I have long been annoyed by the stupid beer guy games where in an obvious and petty effort to increase tip. They count out change slow motion, stopping after each dollar with a questioning, sometimes sad puppy, sometime aggressive look, hoping you'll get bored and give them a bigger tip. This year there is a new aggravation, then never have "change" tacking on an automatic $ 0.50 surcharge announced after they have my money. I understand these people deserve a tip for their service. I think I'm a pretty good tipper, but I'm also old fashioned. I like to think the tip is my idea adn I gave it freely.

In our section there used to be one really good beertender. He worked the section, came to the regulars at the right times. He knew what kind of beer we liked. He always had correct change and was cheerful about making it. I know he got more in tips from me and some of the other people than the current group does. I would often give him an extra tip at the end of the third quarter, for taking care of us during the game. I now often go out in the concourse rather than deal with the vendors.

Customer Service MSY-ery Style

Today I left town again. Because of my flight time and her schedule She dropped me off at the Airport earlier than necessary.

I decided to have breakfast. That turned out to be a mistake. I was on the B Concourse so there is only one establishment there that serves actual breakfast food. Another place does serve a bacon and egg po-boy.

I got in line and decided to order the $8.50 breakfast special which includes pre-scrabbled eggs, bacon or sausage and grits or hash browns off the steam table. Not a real good price, but whatever. I got into line and said "I'll have the #1 Special Breakfast with bacon and grits" the response was "We're out of grits". I later found out they were also out of bacon.

Now my first question is how do you run out of grits? They are cheap you could make enough to feed an army for a couple of dollars. Surely at the prices they are charging they could make extra. Even instant grits are better than no grits at all. I decided to pass, not mostly because they were out of grits (I like hash brows just fine) but mostly because the person serving seemed completely uncaring about me the customer standing right there. The announcement that they were out of grits was not prefaced with even a perfunctory "I'm sorry" or any other indication of interest.

I suppose no one in the tourist industry cares because no one stops to eat at the airport on their way into town. By the time they get to airport food the tourist industry has already separated the tourist from as much money as they could manage and don't see a need to be nice any longer.

That is a shame for two reasons.

First is that most places in New Orleans do a pretty good job of Customer Service maintaining a fairly good balance between hospitality and respecting guests privacy. There is very little of the TGI Friday's institutionalized perkiness "Hi! I'm Heather and in addition to bringing you your food I'm you new best friend!" and the sort of haughty service some pseudo-star restaurants affect announcing "The Chef prefers to serve you food his way, so sit there and like it remember to leave a big tip."

The second is it damages the name of a fairly well known Soul Food Resturant, The Praline Connection. I don't blame them. I understand that they and a few other places ( Acme Oyster House) licensed the food service vendor at the airport to use their name. While they may get some royalties they have no control over the operation. I just hope it doesn't hurt them too much.

Enhancing Security through Preferential Treatment

TSA is at it again. They are enhancing Security by reducing privacy and providing preferential treatment to some people.

WASHINGTON – The Transportation Security Administration (TSA) today announced that it began testing a limited, voluntary passenger pre-screening initiative with a small known traveler population at four U.S. airports. The TSA PreCheck initiative implements a key component of the agency’s intelligence-driven, risk-based approach to security. This pilot program will help assess measures designed to enhance security by placing more focus on pre-screening individuals who volunteer information about themselves prior to flying in order to potentially expedite the travel experience.

This is apparently an effort to salvage the failed program where travelers paid a fee for expedited clearance.

One of the Airports is Atlanta and one of the Airlines is Delta. I frequently fly to and from Atlanta and just after this pilot program started I flew through the Atlanta airport.

Part 1 -Assured Success

I usually park my car in the Airport Park and Ride and use the South Security Screening Area as it is closer to the first bus stop at the terminal. Delta and TSA have selected this area for im0limenting the pilot program. It should work out well, you see they have dedicated one of the 3 ID check lines for the PreCheck program, and judging by the traffic those traveler should be very expedited, you see there was only about one passenger ever 15 or 20 seconds in that line, meaning the the TSA agent sat there frequently with nothing to do. Of course diverting one third of the passengers using that Check Point into the other lines delayed everyone else.

Part 2 - It Gets Better
I am an Airtran A+ Elite and our company has an A2B Corporate Account.

On Wednesday October 12, 2011 I arrived at the Atlanta airport early for my flight to New Orleans, about 4:15 PM. I parked in the Airport Park and Ride. Since I had my boarding pass and no luggage to check I went to the South Security Screening Area as it was closer to the shuttle bus drop off.

This is the area Delta and TSA are running their pilot PreCheck program in. This is the second time I had been through this check point since the program started and I expected that one line would be dedicated to that program (although very few people seemed to be using it the previous time). I was surprised to see several uniformed Delta Employees pre-checking boarding passes and directing each passenger into one of the three available ID checking lines. I paid little attention at the time, however once I was in line it became apparent that the Delta employees were not merely directing people to the appropriate line but screening passengers and reserving two lines for their preferred passengers. As I result it took me 15 minutes to clear security while two uniformed TSA agents sat in plain sight with virtually no passengers going through their lines. Of course those passengers were "expedited". Of course diverting two thirds (or more) of the passengers using that Check Point into the other lines delayed everyone else.

As a Corporate customer and as an A+ Elite passenger I am supposed to be eligible for "dedicated check-in lines and security entrances at select airports". In the past I have always been able to access the Preferred check-in lines for airline frequent flyers.

I don't expect any airline to be able to block anyone from using government services we all pay for.

Does anyone beleive this SHIT?

The latest dysfunctional Government fight over FEMA was resolved because;

FEMA spokeswoman Rachel Racusen, said the agency had $114 million left in its disaster relief fund, enough to last until Thursday or Friday, the final business day of the current budget year. She said the exact timing would depend on the number of emergency victims who apply for aid, and whether any new disasters occur.

I think FEMA loses or denies more applications in a week than $114,000,000 and if they could write a check for anything between now and Friday I'd drop dead from surprise.

I applied for aid once it took the six months to deny me.

Rising Tide 6 - Slacker Post

I have been involved with the annual Rising Tide Conference from the Beginning. This year I was a slacker, significantly reducing my involvement to barely anything. Probably as a direct result the conference experienced a surge of new organizers and a big increase in attendance. Even the MSM had some nice things to say. Like this excerpt by Dave Walker, The Times-Picayune

David Simon gave one of the keynote speeches at Saturday’s (August 27) Rising Tide conference, an annual gathering of the tribe that articulated an impassioned online defense of New Orleans after the levees flopped six years ago.

In season one of “Treme,” John Goodman’s Creighton Bernette used some of the words blogged by the late Ashley Morris, whose name is on an award handed out annually at Rising Tide. This year, the award went to Dedra Johnson, who blogs as G-Bitch and was the author of this excellent first-person account of “Treme’s” Jazzfest re-creation this past season. Other panels hit on topics of interest to anyone interested in “Treme,” including the BP oil disaster, New Orleans food and brass bands.

Unfortunately he more or less ignored the many other topic covered at Rising Tide 6.

LSU in the Sugar Bowl

Following the BCS madness I'm expecting LSU to play in the Sugar Bowl. If as seems likely Auburn wins out they will be in the BCS Championship. It seems likely that LSU will be the highest ranked SEC teams and the Sugar Bowl will pick them. It seems likely that they will also pick whoever is left, from TCU or Boise State. Mark Schlabach of ESPN seems to agree, here are his picks.

BCS National Championship Game (BCS No. 1 vs. BCS No. 2)	Oregon vs. Auburn
Allstate Sugar (SEC #1 vs. BCS)	LSU vs. TCU
Discover Orange (ACC # 1 vs. BCS)	Virginia Tech vs. Wisconsin
Fiesta (Big 12 # 1 vs. BCS)	Nebraska vs. Pittsburgh
Rose Bowl presented by VIZIO (Pac 10 #1 vs. Big 10 #1 )	Michigan State vs. Boise State

Fox/cfn has LSU in the Sugar against Boise State. and CBS, who expect Alabama to beat Auburn, have LSU in the Orange. I found a link that keeps several predictions current ( usually a day or so after they are released). I'm not sure the order of the replacement picks but I know the bowls that lose a team go first. But if two bowls lose a team who is first (I'd guess they go in order of ranking)?

CBS says this

The champions of selected conferences are contractually committed to certain bowls, unless they are No. 1 or No. 2. (ACC: Orange; Big Ten: Rose; Big 12: Fiesta; Pac-10: Rose; SEC: Sugar). If a Bowl loses a host team to the title game, then the bowl gets first choice at a replacement team. The rest of the selection order for 2011 is as follows: Sugar, Orange, Fiesta.

Assuming that the BCS rankings stay the same (although if Auburn beats Alabama convincingly or Oregon stumbles they could move up) the order of selection would be;

1. Rose Bowl to replace Oregon
2. Sugar to replace Auburn
3. Sugar
4. Orange
5. Fiesta

That would mean that the the Rose Bowl would probably select either Boise State or TCU. I'd guess they will select Boise State, since they are a western team, but maybe that's wishful thinking. Sugar could select LSU and TCU. I think TCU is a better team and a lot of people would follow them to New Orleans. I don't think the Smurfs travel that well.

Of course all of this assumes everybody does what people expect them to do and Les Miles doesn't get fired first.

The actual Rules for the BCS selection are fairly complicated, and I'm not sure anyone has actually considered all of them. Here is the meat of the process, There is a lot more dealying with what happens if enough teams don't qualify under these rules.

BCS selection procedures

Automatic Qualification, At-Large Eligibility and Team Selection

Automatic qualification

1. The top two teams in the final BCS Standings shall play in the National Championship Game.

2. The champions of the Atlantic Coast, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-10, and Southeastern conferences will have automatic berths in one of the participating bowls through the 2013 regular season.

3. The champion of Conference USA, the Mid-American Conference, the Mountain West Conference, the Sun Belt Conference, or the Western Athletic Conference will earn an automatic berth in a BCS bowl game if either:

A. Such team is ranked in the top 12 of the final BCS Standings, or,
B. Such team is ranked in the top 16 of the final BCS Standings and its ranking in the final BCS Standings is higher than that of a champion of a conference that has an annual automatic berth in one of the BCS bowls.

No more than one such team from Conference USA, the Mid-American Conference, the Mountain West Conference, the Sun Belt Conference, and the Western Athletic Conference shall earn an automatic berth in any year. (Note: a second team may be eligible for at-large eligibility as noted below.) If two or more teams from those conferences satisfy the provisions for an automatic berth, then the team with the highest finish in the final BCS Standings will receive the automatic berth, and the remaining team or teams will be considered for at-large selection if it meets the criteria.

4. Notre Dame will have an automatic berth if it is in the top eight of the final BCS Standings.

5. If any of the 10 slots remain open after application of provisions 1 through 4, and an at-large team from a conference with an annual automatic berth for its champion is ranked No. 3 in the final BCS Standings, that team will become an automatic qualifier, provided that no at-large team from the same conference qualifies for the national championship game.

6. If any of the 10 slots remain open after application of provisions 1 through 5, and if no team qualifies under paragraph No. 5 and an at-large team from a conference with an annual automatic berth for its champion is ranked No. 4 in the final BCS Standings, that team will become an automatic qualifier provided that no at-large team from the same conference qualifies for the national championship game.

---

At-large eligibility

If there are fewer than 10 automatic qualifiers, then the bowls will select at-large participants to fill the remaining berths. An at-large team is any Football Bowl Subdivision team that is bowl-eligible and meets the following requirements:

A. Has won at least nine regular-season games, and
B. Is among the top 14 teams in the final BCS Standings.

No more than two teams from a conference may be selected, regardless of whether they are automatic qualifiers or at-large selections, unless two non-champions from the same conference are ranked No. 1 and No. 2 in the final BCS Standings.

It couldn't happen to a nicer guy.

She was reading an old CityBusiness this afternoon. She ran across this story in a side bar.

On March 2 New Single Assessor Errol Williams got stuck in the elevators at city hall. There were two numbers posted in the elevator car, along with an explicit notice not to call the Fire Department. He called both emergency numbers posted in the car, they were the engineer's office and the security guard. Guess what? Of course neither number answered. He then called a friend in the Civil Sheriff's office who called, guess who? The Fire Department, of course. When the Fire Department got him out, guess what they told him? "Don't pay any attention to what the City posted."

Seems like there ought to be a metaphor or a moral in that story somewhere. Possibly about the mighty being unable to overcome the institutional idiocy that infects everything in City Government.

I'm sure most readers have experienced similar dysfunction in public systems in New Orleans. The feeling sure seems familiar on any number of levels.

I wish Mitch a lot of luck, he's going to need it.

I'd rather be in a FEMA trailer in New Orleans than in a penthouse anywhere else

I found the title quote by Gralen Banks;

"I'd rather be in a FEMA trailer in New Orleans than in a penthouse anywhere else,"

in this NPR story I hadn't seen before (or forgot about) reading another NPR Story about Treme.

Echoes of Lafcadio Hearn;

"Times are not good here. The city is crumbling into ashes. It has been buried under taxes and frauds and maladministraions so that it has become a study for archaeologists...but it is better to live here in sackcloth and ashes than to own the whole state of Ohio."

Odd that we now have a couple of from NOLA Blogger expats in Ohio.

The Trailer Two Step

Here we go again. There are still 350 trailers in New Orleans. I am not surprised you can see them scattered in neighborhoods all over the city. A few months ago I was in an unusual (for me) part of town and was surprised to see one. A shortly after that The Times-Picayune ran a story on the few trailers left in Jefferson.

I started this blog to chronicle my life in a FEMA trailer and as self therapy for the dislocation after the flood. I had one of the first trailers. I was lucky because I had power and water at my house, many people didn't. I lived in it for over 2 years.

I had monthly inspections I had to take off from work to meet the FEMA inspector. The trailer gnomes came and did stuff when you weren't around (mostly adding new warning stickers).

I sat through a formaldehyde test, which turned out not to be that bad, although I never was actually warned about formaldehyde. It took months of calling to get the report and I never did actually get the full report, only a summary letter.

There was a tremendous trailer industry. There were installation contracts, electrical contracts, maintenance contracts, inspection contracts. Virtually none of the people involved in these activities was local. I don't think that in the entire time I was in the trailer a single person who came out was local. The same person never came twice. It was a revolving door of government employees and contractors.

In all that time no one ever offered to help me get out of the trailer (except into the rental assistance program). No one offered to help with the road home applications. No one offered to help create a housing plan. No one offered any rebuilding assistance. No one offered help finding contractors. No one offered to coordinate volunteers. No one offered to help me find government programs I was qualified for. No one even left me a brochure in government speak of options I could pursue.

I live in a mostly white, affluent neighborhood, so I may have been profiled or they may have decided I was a low probability to accept help. But my neighborhood is also a neighborhood with lots of elderly residents who could have used help.

If we want to get people out of trailers and into houses, perhaps we need to spend less on contractors and enforcement and a little more on counseling and helping people manage their renovations. Perhaps we should move some of the CDBG money out of making millionaires out of DBEs and into helping actual people.

What the matter with some people?

We are trying to buy some Real Estate, in this market you would think that Real Estate people would be all over any credible purchaser, yet getting some people to call back is very difficult.

We looked at one property and after several attempts the listing broker never called back. The Owner (a bank) is having trouble selling it, I wonder if the broker is part of the problem?

On another property I got the name of the person handling it. She didn't call back. I called again and spoke to the person. I called to set up an appointment for my wife. The person handling it would not be available when she was so we arranged for her to meet another person. She showed up in the rain for her appointment, called the guy who was supposed to meet her. He had either forgotten or blown the meeting off. When I called the office back to set up a meeting for myself, the original broker said, oh, he tried to contact you (not accurate) and I'm not handling it any more, he is. I called him, he said my wife was supposed to call and reschedule, that's sorta true, she didn't want to wait for him in the rain after he forgot the meeting. I asked if we could meet Wednesday or Thursday morning. I was thinking about 8:30 AM, he couldn't get there that soon. I decided We weren't that interested.

Institutionalizing Reform

New Orleans needs to Institutionalize reforms to prevent a relapse. Simply electing good people to a bad system is not enough. It might actually appear that the system is working.

Mexico has an Institutional Revolutionary Party originally formed to preserve and extend the ideals of the Mexican Revolution. It hasn't worked out that well. Eventually the party became fat, happy, arrogant and corrupt. Eventually they lost.

The NOPD is much in the news. The Chief is under fire and he may have pulled off an amazing feat of public relations. He may actually be less popular than the Mayor.

C. Ray Nagin and Chief Riley

People are looking back on Chief Pennington as some kind of golden age. Under Pennington, one-third of the corrupt or under-performing NOPD was replaced, firing people who can't pass truly independent investigations of complaints, random integrity checks, and professional standards.

But before firing everybody "who can't pass truly independent investigations of complaints, random integrity checks, and professional standards" You have to have a chain of command committed to those standards and the ability to conduct truly independent investigations of complaints, credible integrity checks and well communicated professional standards.

It seems to me you can't fire the entire police force all at once unless the Governor is willing to mobilize the National Guard for several years until a new force can be built. Maybe Obama could invade New Orleans and start over like Bush did in Iraq. Short of that you are necessarily going to rebuild the force with some of the same people. Progressive improvement and attrition will eventually replace all of the current officers. Pennington made a lot of improvements, had his successors built on that instead of dismantling what he did we would be much better off today. The long term key is a long term effort.

Mitch has started a national search for a new ploice chief as the first step. We need to Institutionalize these reforms so that the next Ray Nagin can't undo them. Every Police Chief needs to be selected with the same kind of process we routinely use for Superintendent of Schools, Aviation Director and Inspector General. It's too important to be left to the Mayor's crony. There is much more to do but it is an imperative first step to permanently solve the problem long term. The NOPD made a lot of progress under Pennington, but he didn't finish the job and quickly reverted as soon as he left town.

One way to help stop the reversion would be more effective power sharing between the City Council and the Mayor. As we have watched Nagin push the limits of Mayoral power and arrogance there was no effective counter weigh in city government. Often the Council was literally powerless to do anything. Pushing the decision out in the public (like the Inspector General selection for example) would insure at least some public scrutiny and a public record. While University Presidents may not be the ideal group, the prescribed process forces it to be more public. Adding some of this to the Charter would help. There is always danger that some faction will gain enough control to subvert the process.

I worry very much that Mitch will do a good job as Mayor but won't make the structural changes needed to prevent a recurrence of the problems we face.

I am concerned that he won't embrace radical change, but not because he wants to use the existing power. I just don't think he is an innovator. I think he will be competent but not bold.
I'm not sure Mitch was running for power as much as validation or personal and family legacy.

However if he is concerned about his legacy then he might want embrace historic change, like his father did by embracing integration.

I have a theory

I have a theory that for every possible disaster there is a frustrated mid level bureaucrat somewhere secretly hoping that his (or her) doomsday scenario will happen so they can pull that old memo out of the bottom drawer of the desk and say "See I told you this would happen".

Since the number of frustrated mid level bureaucrats is effectively infinite and many may harbor more that one scenario, it is a virtual certainly that after every disaster someone will come forward claiming to have been a voice in the wilderness.

Imagine;
Maximum Mary Schiavo, former Inspector General of DOT where in spite of her success she seemed determined to provoke controversy.

Or Linda Trippwho ratted Bill Clinton.

Then there's Russ Tice,


who was one of the sources used by the New York Times in reporting on the NSA wiretapping controversy. He had earlier been known for reporting suspicions that a DIA colleague of his might be a Chinese spy. A serial whistle blower.

or;

Elia Kazan, a former member of the communist party who testified before the House Un-American Activities Committee and "named names".

Newt, the historian misses a bet.

I have read and enjoyed the Gingrich/Forstchen collaborations on the Civil War.


I think they present a plausible alternative end game and an interesting take on the character of the major figures. At least that's my perspective from a lot of reading on the Civil War and from my family tradition, grounded in Rappahannock County Virginia.


My Father graduated from Rappahannock High School in "Little" Washington, Virginia, just prior to enlisting in the Army Air Corps. He was a firm believer that if Jefferson Davis had followed the advise of his Secretary of Treasury, Judah Benjamin the Confederacy might have prevailed.


That evaluation not withstanding my father climbed into a B-17 and bombed Germany, to his later chagrin.

Planes of the 486 Bomb Group
( my Dad may have been in one of these planes)

However I am not impressed with the Gingrich/Forstchen selection of Pearl Harbor for their World War II collaboration. The story rambles around without much purpose and with little conclusion.


It seems odd to me, I think they probably intend(ed) to write a conclusion but either haven't yet or decided not to. In addition every historian I have read has unequivocally concluded that the United States would defeat at the Empire of Japan in an extended war.


The Japanese were well aware of the industrial potential of the United States and knew they could not survive a war a long war.

The United States was also the major supplier of oil to Japan. When the United States embargoed oil shipments to Japan some have stated that war was inevitable. That may be, but only because Japan was unwilling to back down. Others have gone further to state that the United States forced Japan in to a war. That premise seems to be based on Japanese oil reserves and not on diplomatic analysis.

A few have gone so far as to state that the United States provoked the war. These "historians" often invoke racism in their analysis. That has always puzzled me. The stated reason for the oil embargo was the Japanese invasion and outrages in Manchurian and China. The demands the United States made on Japan were all related to their conduct in China. I have never understood how the United States placing economic sanctions on Japan for killing Chinese can be seen as racist.

In my opinion the Japanese rationally assessed the United States Naval building program in 1930's and decided that unless a military strike was made soon the United States would have predominate power and military action would be useless. They refused to make the necessary political concessions, likely because that would have caused severe political disruption in Japan, possibly a coup, a mutiny or even a civil war.

After Roosevelt's election the United States built ups its military, partly in response to world events and partly as a jobs program

USS Essex CV-9

In 1938 Congress authorized the Essex, lead ship of what would be the 24 ship Essex class of Aircraft Carriers. Eight additional ships were authorized on September 9 1940. These ships alone would match the Japaneses Aircraft Carrier Fleet. Combined with the existing ships and the Hornet also then under construction the Japanese would have been significantly outnumbered by the middle of 1943. The follow on Midway Class was already being designed.

Add to that, the construction of the North Carolina Class of (2) Battleships was complete in 1940. The South Dakota class (4) was under construction and due for commissioning by mid 1942. The Iowa Class had been ordered and the keels already laid. The even more massive Montana Class was being designed.

North Carolina Class Battle Ship

This does not even include the literally hundreds of other ships on order or under construction in 1941. For example there were 21 Gleaves Class destroyers completed and commissioned between 1938 and the attack on Pearl Harbor, dozens more of the remaining 41 ships of the class were under construction. Work had already started on almost 2 dozen of the follow up Fletcher Class. Ultimately 175 Fletchers were built.

Fletcher Class Destroyer

Japan could not hope to match this pace of building. And most of the Japanese leaders were aware of it. The best they could hope for, short of backing down, was to strike a blow that would make the United States reconsider or temper it's opposition to Japanese policies in China.

Unfortunately that strike didn't cow the United States and prompted a national anger that lead to the total defeat of Japan. That defeat never required more than about a third of the US war effort.

I think there is a much more interesting scenario they could have investigated.

In 1940 Germany stood undefeated and arrogant at the edge of the English Channel. There were plans for an invasion. Men and machines were being gathered.

At the time (late August 1940) the RAF was near the breaking point. There were sufficient aircraft being built but pilots were being lost before they could become effective. There was serious discussion that the RAF would need to be pulled north out of the reach of the bombers.

Consider this;

The first RAF raid on Berlin took place on the night of 25 August 1940. It is widely believed that caused the Luftwaffe to switch from bombing airfields and military installations to bombing cities. After all Goering had said in 1939 "No enemy bomber can reach the Ruhr. If one reaches the Ruhr, my name is not Goering. You may call me Meyer."

In a speech delivered on September 4 Hitler promised retribution. Hitler threatened, "...When the British Air Force drops two or three or four thousand kilograms of bombs, then we will in one night drop 150-, 230-, 300- or 400,000 kilograms. When they declare that they will increase their attacks on our cities, then we will raze their cities to the ground. We will stop the handiwork of those night air pirates, so help us God!"

The first Luftwaffe raid on London was not until September 7 1940, making the premise more than plausible.

Suppose the raid on Berlin had not happened and the RAF had pulled back. The Germans may have begun to feel they had beaten the RAF, especially if the British fed misinformation to them through the XX double agent system of dis-information.

Suppose as a result of the 3 July 1940 Battle of Mers-el-Kébir, the egotistical French Navy decided to throw in with the Kreigsmarine?

When Eisenhower tried to get the French to switch sides a couple of years later French Admirals negotiated for personal position, rather than join the liberation of France, resulting in loss of a lot of French sailors and ships but few Admirals. They might have been persuaded by a deft handling and the offer of assistance to get their battered ships and egos seaworthy. With the French on board the excellent Italian Navy could not resist helping support the invasion. The Japanese might even be persuaded to help some, in exchange for British possessions in Asia.

Given that state of affairs then Hitler may have seen this as an opportunity to eliminate a threat in his rear prior to attacking his good friend Joe Stalin.

Developing the scenario further by postponing the invasion until the spring of 1941 to allow the French ships to be repaired, the Luftwaffe to bring on new aircraft with reliable drop tanks and for the further preparation of troops, ships and landing craft. We have a scenario which might be plausible.

We look back at the successful amphibious landings later in the war and see how poorly organized such an attempt have would been. But in 1940 no one had ever mounted a large scale amphibious operation. The famous Higgins boat had only recently been shown to the Marine Corps and the final version with a full width bow ramp was yet to be developed. The doctrine of amphibious warfare had not been developed and its dangers were not understood. During the attack on Wake Island in December 1941, the initial Japanese landings were fought off by a relatively small garrison of Marines. Up to the disastrous Dieppe Raid in August 1942 it was believed that surprise could allow an assault to succeed. The May 1941 Battle of Crete had not yet exposed the weaknesses of airborne assault. The war had not really started in earnest.

One thing I have seen written is that some in Germany believed that the Royal Navy may have decided not to put forth a maximum effort to oppose the invasion, preferring to take the King and Government to safety beyond reach of the Germans, probably to Canada. This is of course absurd, but the Germans may have convinced themselves.

Of course the Royal Navy would have steamed into the middle of the invasion fleet flying Nelson's message to the fleet before Trafalgar.

"England Expects That Every Man Will Do his Duty"

Nelson's famous statement that,"No captain can do very wrong if he places his ship alongside that of the enemy", would be on the mind of every captain as well as the memory of the English ships who sailed out to confront the Spanish Armada, the last time anyone dared try to invade England.

The invasion would no doubt have been a disastrous military failure but the political calculus of the time would have changed enormously. England would be weakened enormously, possibly enough that Churchill would be put out of office and peace negotiated. Another possible outcome might be that Stalin would take the drubbing as a cue to attack Hitler while he was recovering from the loss. Japanese reaction might be to attack the United States sooner or more directly. Roosevelt may have been compelled to enter the war. Maybe India would leave the British Empire.

Moderation and Caution at the Polls

During all of the Who Dat and Carnival celebrations there was an election. To hear many people you would think it was some kind of massive reform vote. But I think the truth is much different. Very few new comers were elected. The vote was largely a cautious vote for safety and competence. One fact which I haven't seen anywhere (but I've been out of town a lot) , no incumbent was defeated. In the one race with two incumbents, both made it to a run off. In most other races well known politicians won easily.

State Senator -- 5th Senatorial District 91 of 91 Precincts Reporting
Karen Carter Peterson (D)	13,509	78.34%
Irma Muse Dixon (D)	3,734	21.66%

Karen Carter Peterson has been a rising star on the local political scene for a while. She was considered to be a strong candidate for Mayor, but chose not to run. She was mentioned as a challenger to Joseph Cao, but chose the State Senate.

Judge -- Civil District Court, Division J 366 of 366 Precincts Reporting
Paula Brown (D)	48,010	60.55%
Stephen Chesnut (R)	14,837	18.71%
Morris Reed (D)	16,442	20.74%

Paula Brown was a former temporary judge who won easy election in a minor race.

Judge -- Juvenile Court, Section E 366 of 366 Precincts Reporting
Richard Exnicios (D)	20,065	26.07%
Tracey Flemings-Davillier (D)	38,786	50.39%
Marie Williams (D)	18,121	23.54%

Don't know much about Tracey Flemings-Davillier, another minor race.

Sheriff 366 of 366 Precincts Reporting
Marlin N. Gusman (D - I)	69,289	82.89%
Pat M. Peyton (D)	14,301	17.11%

Marlin Gusman ran an impressive race against a minor challenger. Easy incumbent victory

Clerk -- Criminal District Court 366 of 366 Precincts Reporting
Arthur A. Morrell (D - I)	63,821	81.99%
Harold E. Weiser (N)	14,020	18.01%

Another Incumbent victory against a minor challenger.

Assessor 366 of 366 Precincts Reporting
Andrew Gressett (R)	5,269	6.30%
Janis Lemle (D)	19,750	23.61%
Claude Mauberret (D - I)	20,919	25.01%
Erroll G. Williams (D - I)	37,697	45.07%

In a hotly contested race for the new combined Assessor, two incumbents edged out a full fledged reformer/new comer. This election more that any other illustrates the moderate mood of the electorate.

Coroner 366 of 366 Precincts Reporting
Dwight McKenna (D)	32,435	39.59%
Frank Minyard (D - I)	49,483	60.41%

Another impressive win for incumbency, the long time heavily criticized 80 year old white Minyard against the well connected black McKenna. Neither exactly a reformer or an outsider.

Mayor -- City of New Orleans 366 of 366 Precincts Reporting
Jonah Bascle (N)	160	0.18%
"Manny" Chevrolet-Bruno (O)	139	0.16%
Robert "Rob" Couhig (R)	4,874	5.48%
John Georges (D)	8,189	9.21%
Troy Henry (D)	12,275	13.80%
"Jerry" Jacobs (N)	106	0.12%
Thomas A. Lambert (R)	239	0.27%
Mitchell "Mitch" Landrieu (D)	58,276	65.52%
James Perry (D)	2,702	3.04%
Nadine Ramsey (D)	1,894	2.13%
Norbert P. Rome (N)	84	0.09%

Mitch's win is stunning. I was sure that there would be a divisive run off. No one I know of predicted the margin. In retrospect it seems voters were retreating to safety and familiarity. Mitch had run twice before, the community had a largely positive view of his sister and father. I think it would be a mistake to view this as an endorsement for reform, that was simply not a part of Mitch's campaign. He ran as the safe "not Nagin". Mitch's legacy could well be a "good" but it's hard to see a radical reformer in his history or his personality.

Councilmember(s) at Large 366 of 366 Precincts Reporting
Jacquelyn Brechtel Clarkson (D - I)	38,904	26.57%
"Arnie" D. Fielkow (D -I)	51,310	35.05%
William "Poppa" Gant (N)	1,370	0.94%
Nolan Marshall (D)	13,411	9.16%
Gregory "Chef" Sonnier (R)	3,014	2.06%
"Lance" W. von Uhde III (R)	1,031	0.70%
Cynthia Willard-Lewis (D)	37,362	25.52%

The two incumbents won easily, the only serious challenger was the other incumbent Cynthia Willard-Lewis.

Councilmember -- District A 89 of 89 Precincts Reporting
John "Jay" Batt (R)	9,046	39.32%
Virginia Blanque (R)	3,324	14.45%
Susan G. Guidry (D)	10,173	44.22%
"Fred" Robertson (N)	461	2.00%

District A's incumbent reformer elected not to run and endorsed Susan Guidry. The former incumbent Jay Batt decided to run again. Guidry is a new face running as a reformer against a polarizing former incumbent but was unable to close the deal. Again familiarity blunted reform.

Councilmember -- District B 81 of 81 Precincts Reporting
Stacy Head (D - I)	10,132	66.86%
Corey Watson (D)	5,021	33.14%

Possibly the most interesting race where the reform and incumbent streams merged in the landslide re-election of a controversial reformer over a new face. The association of the new face with the old guard may well have affected his appeal.

Councilmember -- District C 76 of 76 Precincts Reporting
"Tom" Arnold (R)	5,217	31.82%
Kristin Gisleson Palmer (D)	10,508	64.10%
Nathaniel Jones (N)	668	4.07%

I know very little about this race. It seems the only clear instance of the rejection of an incumbent (Tom Arnold) for a new comer (Kristin Palmer) with little government experience. She was endorsed by the incumbent James Carter. Her opponents "eccentricities" didn't hurt either.

Councilmember -- District D 63 of 63 Precincts Reporting
Cynthia Hedge-Morrell (D -I)	11,612	76.53%
Denise Holden (D)	3,562	23.47%

Another clear win for the Incumbent Party.

Councilmember -- District E 57 of 57 Precincts Reporting
Austin Badon (D)	5,078	38.85%
Jerrelda Drummer-Sanders (D)	805	6.16%
Jon Johnson (D)	3,912	29.93%
Leonard Lucas, Jr. (D)	434	3.32%
Cyndi Nguyen (D)	1,776	13.59%
Alicia Plummer (D)	1,065	8.15%

With no incumbent this race resulted in a run off between politicians looking to move up. An incumbent State Rep and a former legislator, score tie for the Incumbent Party.

The remaining ballot matters generally reflect a distrust of City Government to deliver services. All of them passed overwhelmingly. Crime prevention districts generally reflect a view that the NOPD cannot be trusted to deliver services to generally affluent areas. The idea that the services provided by these districts enhance the service in certain areas is highly suspect. The NOPD could be expected to redeploy its resources out of area covered by these special assessments. These districts do guarantee a minimum level of service.

Lake Terrace Crime Prevention Dist. -- Parcel Fee - CC - 8 Yrs. 2 of 2 Precincts Reporting
Yes	365	86.70%
No	56	13.30%

Spring Lake Subdiv. Imp. Dist. -- $200 Annual Fee - CC - 8 Yrs. 1 of 1 Precincts Reporting
Yes	100	73.53%
No	36	26.47%

Garden District Security District -- 19 Mills - CC - 8 Yrs. 12 of 12 Precincts Reporting
Yes	1,136	90.30%
No	122	9.70%

Touro Bouligny Security District -- 16 2/10 Mills - CC - 8 Yrs. 10 of 10 Precincts Reporting
Yes	617	81.29%
No	142	18.71%

Those expecting some kind of massive reform are likely mistaken. Interpreting this election, however relieved we were to be rid of Rey Ray Nagin, as an endorsement of reform is probably going to disappoint the reformers. None of the candidates ran on a strong reform platform. There was remarkable unanimity on a number of small reforms. Mostly they simply promised to do a better job than the current bunch.

Nothing in the results suggests to me that many of the officials elected are willing to make the kinds of structural reforms needed to prevent the recurrence of a Nagin like mayor. This is somewhat similar to the pronouncements following Obama's election that the American People had changed their stripes and now were born again New Deal Progressive Democrats. What was really at work was much simpler and more mundane. George W Bush was the most unpopular President in recent memory. Nagin is even more unpopular than George W. Bush was.

There seems to me a common flailing in the progressive culture. There is a wide spread belief that if we could only elect the smartest, most eloquent Philosopher King things will fall into place. In fact as the framers of the Constitution demonstrated, the underlying structure matters far more to successful government than the people operating it. Any defect in structure will be exploited for the benefit of special interests or personal gain. The vesting of so much power in the person of the Mayor is a severe defect in the New Orleans City government.

For the Record

As of the end of the 2009-2010 season, 14 NFL teams have never won a Super Bowl.

The teams that have been to the Super Bowl (in years shown) and lost each time:

• Buffalo Bills (0-4) consecutively 1991-1994
• Cincinnati Bengals (0-2) 1982, 1989
• Tennessee Titans (0-1) 2000
• San Diego Chargers (0-1) 1995
• Philadelphia Eagles (0-2) 1981, 2005
• Minnesota Vikings (0-4) 1970, 1974, 1975, 1977
• Carolina Panthers (0-1) 2004
• Atlanta Falcons (0-1) 1999
• Seattle Seahawks (0-1) 2006
• Arizona Cardinals (0-1) 2009

Teams that have never played in a Super Bowl :

• The Cleveland Browns
• Jacksonville Jaguars
• Houston Texans
• Detroit Lions

The Saints are the only team in the NFC South that has won a Super Bowl except for Tampa Bay.

A random act of competance!

The TP reported on February 12 that the city had replaced some IT contractors and renegotiated some contracts.

The new contracts represent a huge cost savings. Combined, the three deals will cost no more than $4.3 million this year, while Ciber and VisionIT averaged a combined $23 million a year since mid-2007. That's a savings of 81 percent.

This is a significant accomplishment.

The report was lost in the hysteria of the Saints win and carnival. It deserves wider coverage and support.

If other city departments (notably the Sanitation Department) would take similar action, the cities budget problems might be manageable.